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Current warming will reduce yields unless maize breeding and seed systems adapt immediately

A. J. Challinor, A.-K. Koehler , J. Ramirez-Villegas, S. Whitfield and B. Das

The development of crop varieties that are better suited to new climatic conditions is vital for future food production. Increases in mean temperature accelerate crop development, resulting in shorter crop durations and reduced time to accumulate biomass and yield. The…

Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming

Peter Good , Ben B.B. Booth , Robin Chadwick , Ed Hawkins, Alexandra Jonko & Jason A. Lowe

For adaptation and mitigation planning, stakeholders need reliable information about regional precipitation changes under different emissions scenarios and for different time periods. A significant amount of current planning effort assumes that each K of global warming produces roughly the same…

The onset and cessation of seasonal rainfall over Africa

Caroline M. Dunning, Emily C. L. Black, Richard P. Allan

Variation in the seasonal cycle of African rainfall is of key importance for agriculture. Here an objective method of determining the timing of onset and cessation is, for the first time, extended to the whole of Africa. The method is…

Urban groundwater quality in sub-Saharan Africa: current status and implications for water security and public health

D. J. Lapworth, D. C. W. Nkhuwa, J. Okotto-Okotto, S. Pedley, M. E. Stuart, M. N. Tijani & J. Wright

Groundwater resources are important sources of drinking water in Africa, and they are hugely important in sustaining urban livelihoods and supporting a diverse range of commercial and agricultural activities. Groundwater has an important role in improving health in sub-Saharan Africa…

The Use of Remotely Sensed Rainfall for Managing Drought Risk: A Case Study of Weather Index Insurance in Zambia

Emily Black, Elena Tarnavsky, Ross Maidment , Helen Greatrex , Agrotosh Mookerjee, Tristan Quaife and Matthew Brown

Remotely sensed rainfall is increasingly being used to manage climate-related risk in gauge sparse regions. Applications based on such data must make maximal use of the skill of the methodology in order to avoid doing harm by providing misleading information.…

Recent observed and simulated changes in precipitation over Africa

Ross I. Maidment, Richard P. Allan, and Emily Black

Multiple observational data sets and atmosphere-only simulations from the Coupled ModelIntercomparison Project Phase 5 are analysed to characterise recent rainfall variability and trends overAfrica focusing on 1983–2010. Data sets exhibiting spurious variability, linked in part to a reduction in raingauge…

Teleconnections between Ethiopian rainfall variability and global SSTs: observations and methods for model evaluation

Mekonnen Adnew Degefu, David P. Rowell and Woldeamlak Bewket

Rainfall variability in Ethiopia has significant effects on rainfed agriculture and hydropower, so understanding its association with slowly varying global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is potentially important for prediction purposes. This research provides an overview of the seasonality and spatial…

Evaluation for the Performance of the CORDEX Regional Climate Models in Simulating Rainfall Characteristics over Mbarali River Catchment in the Rufiji Basin, Tanzania

Edmund Mutayoba, Japhet J. Kashaigili

This study aims to evaluate the performance of the individual Regional Climate Models (RCMs) used in Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and the ensemble average of the four RCMs to feign the characteristics of the rainfall pattern for the…

Climate change adaptation and cross-sectoral policy coherence in southern Africa

UMFULA

To be effective, cross-cutting issues like climate change adaptation need to be mainstreamed across multiple sectors and for this greater policy coherence is essential. Using the cases of Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia, this paper investigates the extent of coherence in…

Scientific capacity development in climate change related disciplines: Analysis of barriers, opportunities and good practice in Africa

Leigh Cobban, Mark New, Michael Baudoin, Anna Steynor, Katinka Waagsaether, Chris Jack, Julius Kamau, Sarah Correy, Robert Ochieng, Heila Lotz-Sisiska, Cherie Forbes, Jean-Pierre Roux, Jon Padgham, Katie Dietrich, Sarah Schweizer, Abby Gwaltney

This comprehensive study investigated the needs and experiences of African researchers working in climate change-related disciplines. It focused largely on early career researchers based at African institutions (largely universities and national and regional research institutions) who have received support from…

Gender, agriculture and climate change in Malawi

UMFULA

Agriculture is a key livelihood activity and essential contributor to the Malawian, but it is vulnerable to climate change. Both men and women have key roles to play in agriculture, and understanding gender differences can enable better design and targeting of interventions…

Report: The political economy of long-lived decisions in Africa

Guy Pegram, Daniel Seddon-Daines, Shravya Reddy, Nura Sulieman and Hannah Baletta

This framework report has been commissioned to help the RCs and other stakeholders understand the complex nature of economic decision-making on the continent. The report is not an attempt to undertake a comprehensive analysis of the political economy of decisionmaking…

Circulation controls on southern African precipitation in coupled models: The role of the Angola Low

Munday, C., and R. Washington

In southern Africa, models from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project produce a wide variety of rainfall climatologies. Differences between models in rainfall amount reach 70% in the rainy season (December–February; DJF), and the median model overestimates rainfall by between…

HyCRISTAL: Report from the second annual meeting

Owiti Zablone

The second HyCRISTAL annual meeting brought project team and other stakeholders together to get to share the progress made and allowed the team to identify and harmonise cross-pillar activities; interact with partners and identify decisions that needs to be made; conduct…

Climate models: What they show us and how they can be used in planning

Climate modelling is a key tool in tackling the effects of climate change. A new guide from the Future Climate for Africa programme – Climate models: What they show us and how they can be used in planning – explains how…

Using qflux to constrain modeled Congo Basin rainfall in the CMIP5 ensemble

A.Creese, R.Washington

Coupled models are the tools by which we diagnose and project future climate, yet in certain regions they are critically underevaluated. The Congo Basin is one such region which has received limited scientific attention, due to the severe scarcity of…

Interactive Digibook; Africa's Climate: Helping decisions-makers make sense of climate information

Experts from the Future Climate for Africa programme

Please visit our interactive digibook by clicking here: 2016report.futureclimateafrica.org

Report: Africa's climate: Helping decision-makers make sense of climate information

Future Climate for Africa

African decision-makers need reliable, accessible, and trustworthy information about the continent’s climate, and how this climate might change in future, if they are to plan appropriately to meet the region’s development challenges. The Future Climate for Africa report, Africa’s climate:…

Barriers and opportunities for scientific capacity development on climate change in Africa

Cobben, L., M. New et al.

Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change and climate variability, a situation aggravated by limited expertise and resources for climate science. Developing Africa’s scientific capacity is crucial for forecasting and preparing for the impacts of climate…

Report of stakeholders workshop - Senegal

Organised by Senegalese Institute for Agricultural Research (ISRA), the workshop "Expect extreme, adapt practices, manage risk and control the impacts of climate change on the Senegalese Agriculture by 2050" invited participants to discuss and elaborate on emerging debates on  preventing the…

Climate model simulation of the South Indian Ocean Convergence Zone: mean state and variability

Melissa J. Lazenby, Martin C. Todd, Yi Wang

Evaluation of climate model performance at regional scales is essential in determining confidence in simulations of present and future climate. Here, we developed a process-based approach focussing on the South Indian Ocean Convergence Zone (SIOCZ), a large-scale, austral summer rainfall…

Paper: Identifying climate services needs for national planning: Insights from Malawi

Katharine Vincent, Andrew J. Dougill, Jami L. Dixon, Lindsay C. Stringer & Tracy Cull

The importance of climate services, i.e. providing targeted, tailored, and timely weather and climate information, has gained momentum, but requires improved understanding of user needs. This article identifies the opportunities and barriers to the use of climate services for planning…

Future Climate For Africa - Brochure (Français)

CCKE

Le programme Future Climate For Africa (FCFA) présente deux opportunités considérables: créer des données scientifiques fondamentalement nouvelles relatives au climate qui sont axées sur l'Afrique, et veiller à ce que ces données scientifiques aient un impact sur le développement humain dans l'ensemble du continent.

Future Climate For Africa - Folheto (Portuguēs)

CCKE

O Programa Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) oferece duas grandes oportunidades: criar uma nova ciência do clima que visa fundamentalmente África e assegurar que esta ciência tem um impacto no desenvolvimento humano de todo o continente.

FRACTAL Seminar Understanding Urban Governance: Entrypoints for climate science

Dianne Scott, Gilbert Siame & Tasila Banda

The Future Climate for Africa programme together with the Future Resilience for African Cities and Lands (FRACTAL) research team hosted a critical discussion on approaches for understanding the governance structures that shape medium-term development decisions taken in various African contexts…

The political economy of long-lived decisions in Africa - Framework Report

Pegasys

This Framework Report was commissioned to support FCFA research consortia and other stakeholders understand the complex nature of economic decision making on the African continent. The report looks at which long-lived economic decisions are most relevant to influence in order to respond to…

Lusaka Baseline Report

CDKN, FCFA

This report provides an overview of climate adaptation and resilience themes that may be relevant for the city of Lusaka, Zambia. It is an exploration of Lusaka’s climate challenges in the context of the broader city-region and provides provisional institutional analysis. This report…

Co-exploratory climate risk workshops: Experiences from urban Africa

A. Steynor, J. Padgham, C. Jack, B. Hewitson, C. Lennard

Co-production is increasingly recognised as integral to appropriate use and uptake of climate information into decision-making. However, the success of co-production is contingent on an innate understanding of the context in which it is being implemented. Climate knowledge co-production in…

Improving climate information for decision-making in Malawi and Tanzania

FCFA

The project “Uncertainty reduction in Models For Understanding development applications” is also known as Umfula (“river” in Zulu). It will improve climate information for decision-making in central and Southern Africa. The project  aims to support planning around resource use, infrastructure investment…

Examining the utility and use of long-term climate information for hydropower scheme in sub-Saharan Africa

HR Wallingford

This paper investigates the current and potential use of long-term climate information for decision making for hydropower schemes in Saharan Africa. Hydropower schemes are long-lived infrastructure. These are pieces of infrastructure that usually can be maintained for a significantly greater…

Actual and Potential Weather and Climate Information Needs for Development Planning in Malawi

Katharine Vincent , Andrew J. Dougill , Jami Dixon , Lindsay C. Stringer , Tracy Cull , David D. Mkwambisi and Diana Chanika

There is growing interest about how climate information can be used to better inform decision-making across a range of sectors and socio-political and environmental settings. To investigate this across sub- Saharan Africa, the Department for International Development (DFID) through the…

The use of climate services for decision making in the ports sector

HR Wallingford

Infrastructure is a priority areas for the integration of climate science into decision making. Infrastructure which is being planned now may now be operational in a future climate significantly different to the historical climate commonly used for planning and design.…

FCFA pilot study in Ghana

CSAG, START, SEI and University of Ghana W

As a precursor to the Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) research activities, CDKN, on behalf of DFID commissioned a series of case study activities with the purposes of exploring the climate science needs of decision makers in Africa. The report…

Final report of the Rwanda pilot

GCAP, UK Met Office and Atkins

The Rwanda FCFA case study was undertaken to understand the adaptation context in Rwanda, to understand the decision context and end‐use applications for existing and potential adaptation activities, and to explore the current/future use of climate information. Adaptation measures that…

Near-term climate change in Zambia

Colin Gannon, Dan Kandy, Josh Turner, Ipsita Kumar, Karoliina Pilli-Sihvola and Flaviour Sisala Chanda

This Climate Centre project report synthesises current published information regarding climatology, climate variability, and near-term climate change in Zambia. Country, regional, and climate studies have been integrated into a comprehensive picture of Zambia’s current and near-future climate. Additionally, the paper…

Pilot Phase: Zambia | Technical Report

Bettina Koele, Carina Bachofen, Pablo Suarez, Richard Jones, Erin Coughlan

The Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre (RCCC), in collaboration with the Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) and the Zambia Red Cross Society (ZRCS) led the Future Climate for Africa pilot study in Zambia, which sought to examine how to…

Promoting the use of climate information to achieve long-term development objectives in sub-Saharan Africa: Results from the Future Climate For Africa scoping phase

Lindsey Jones, Elizabeth Carabine, Jean-Pierre Roux and Thomas Tanner

The Future Climate For Africa (FCFA) programme explores these questions and seeks to challenge many of the assumptions that underlie them. To guide the programme, six case studies investigated how climate information was being used in decision making in sub-Saharan Africa. These comprised…

Mainstreaming climate information into sector development

Paul Watkiss

This report demonstrates the use of climate information in assessing adaptation needs and implementing adaptation interventions. It provides an outline of the change in thinking that is happening as adaptation moves from theory to practice, how this translates into a different…

Future Climate for Africa - Brochure (English)

CCKE

The Future Climate For Africa Programme presents two major opportunities to: Generate fundamentally new climate science focused on Africa, and Ensure that this science has an impact on human development across the continent. FCFA is a £20 million (US$30 million)…

Report from the Future Climate for Africa Pilot Country Case Study project

CSAG, START, SEI and University of Ghana

As a precursor to the Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) research activities, CDKN, on behalf of DFID commissioned a series of case study activities with the purposes of exploring the climate science needs of decision makers in Africa. The intention…

Using climate information to achieve long-term development objectives for African ports

George Woolhouse and Darren Lumbroso, HR Wallingford

Port infrastructure is designed for a lifetime of many decades and may be operational in a future climate that will be significantly different to the historical climate used for planning and design. Ports are highly vulnerable to climate-related impacts. Their…

Using climate information to achieve long-term development objectives in Malawi

Katharine Vincent, Tracy Cull and Diana Chanika, Kulima Integrated Development Solutions; Andy Dougill, Lindsay Stringer and Jami Dixon, University of Leeds; and David Mkwambisi

Climate change is altering the context in which decisions are made. In order to remain robust and sustainable within the context of a changing climate, policy and planning decisions need to take into account the projected changes in temperature, rainfall…

Using climate information to achieve long-term development objectives in Rwanda

Paul Watkiss, Global Climate Adaptation Partnership

Climate change and extreme weather are already taking a toll on Rwanda.  The country suffers floods and landslides, and variable rainfall affects farming, causing soil erosion and droughts. Scientists predict future climate change has the potential to exacerbate these impacts…

Using climate information to achieve long-term development objectives in coastal Ghana and Mozambique

Anna Steynor, Chris Jack, University of Cape Town Climate Systems Analysis Group (CSAG); Jon Padgham, The global change SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training (START); Sukaina Bharwani, Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI)

Accra, Ghana and Maputo, Mozambique face many development challenges, such as poor transport and drainage infrastructure, as a result of inadequate regulation and law enforcement. Climate change could lead to flooding and coastal erosion and will compound these challenges. As…

Using climate information to achieve long-term development objectives in Zambia

Bettina Koelle, Carina Bachofen, Pablo Suarez, Erin Coughlan, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre; Richard Jones, Met Office Hadley Centre; Wisford Mudenda, Zambia Red Cross Society

Zambia’s climate is bound to change in the coming decades – as climate change takes hold globally. Even if global greenhouse gas emissions fall drastically, Zambia will be affected by changes in temperatures and rainfall for the next generation. This…

Report on ports

HR Wallingford

To help guide the FCFA programme, the Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CKDN) was commissioned by the UK Department for International Development (DFID) to undertake a scoping phase. The focus of the FCFA is to advance scientific knowledge, understanding and prediction…

Report on hydropower

HR Wallingford

To help guide the FCFA programme, the Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CKDN) was commissioned by the UK Department for International Development (DFID) to undertake a scoping phase. The focus of the FCFA is to advance scientific knowledge, understanding and…

Analysis of existing weather and climate information in Malawi

Katharine Vincent, Andrew J. Dougill, David D. Mkwambisi, Tracy Cull, Lindsay C. Stringer and Diana Chanika

The paper reviews the scope of weather and climate information available for Malawi, taking into account both southern African and international sources of information. It also provides an overview of Malawi’s current climate, nature of recent observed changes, and projected…

Malawi technical report

Katharine Vincent , Andrew J. Dougill , Jami Dixon, Lindsay C. Stringer, Tracy Cull, David D. Mkwambisi and Diana Chanika

There is growing interest about how climate information can be used to better inform decision-making across a range of sectors and socio-political and environmental settings. To investigate this across sub- Saharan Africa, the Department for International Development (DFID) through the…

Ghana technical report

CSAG, START, SEI and University of Ghana

As a precursor to the Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) research activities, CDKN, on behalf of DFID commissioned a series of case study activities with the purposes of exploring the climate science needs of decision makers in Africa. The intention…

Rwanda technical report

GCAP, UK Met Office and Atkins

To help guide the FCFA programme, the Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CKDN) was commissioned by the UK Department for International Development (DFID) to undertake a scoping phase. The Rwanda FCFA case study was undertaken by the Global Climate Adaptation Partnerships…

Near Term Climate Change - Zambia

Colin Gannon, Dan Kandy, Josh Turner, Ipsita Kumar, Karoliina Pilli-Sihvola and Flaviour Sisala Chanda

The climate of Zambia, including its precipitation and temperature patterns, is expected to continue to change in the next 5 to 40 years. In the absence of adaptation or disaster risk management, this could affect the agriculture, health, and energy…

Zambia technical report

Bettina Koelle, Carina Bachofen, Pablo Suarez, Richard Jones, Erin Coughlan, Wisford Mudenda

To help guide the FCFA programme, the Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CKDN) was commissioned by the UK Department for International Development (DFID) to undertake a scoping phase. Read the Zambia technical report.

Climate information and long-term decision making in Africa

Lindsey Jones, Jean-Pierre Roux, Thomas Tanner, Charlotte Scott

In informing the wider Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) research programme, the 18-month scoping phase evaluates the needs of users of long-term climate information against the strengths and limitations of current climate science. In so doing, four case studies have…

FCFA Programme Rationale

Ranger, Garnett, Pierce, Aspinall

FCFA will increase the quality and availability of such information and build greater expertise in how to apply this in core development areas. As such, FCFA will contribute towards increasing the resilience of African people to climate variability and change,…

CCKE Unit and Inception Report

SouthSouthNorth

The main aim of the Coordination Capacity building and Knowledge Exchange (CCKE) Unit is to create enabling environments that will help to ensure that improved scientific understanding and prediction of African climate variability and change leads to improved decision-making when coupled…

Working Paper: the role of climate science in supporting long-term adaptation and decision-making

Lindsey Jones, Elizabeth Carabine, Anna Hickman, Lara Langston, Shehnaaz Moosa and Ronald Mukanya

Ensuring that policy-makers are able to respond to the medium- and long-term implications of climate change is important in promoting climate-resilient development. Despite the inherent uncertainties that are associated with it, climate science can support planners in making informed decisions…

CDKN Stories of Change

Stories of change from CDKN: How is climate information being factored into long-term decision-making in Africa?

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