PUBLICATIONS

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A process-based assessment of CMIP5 rainfall in the Congo basin: The September–November rainy season

Amy Creese and Richard Washington

Congo basin September–November rainfall varies by up to a factor of 3 across CMIP5 coupled models. The severe lack of observational data in this region makes model evaluation difficult using standard techniques. This study uses a process-based assessment to evaluate…

Systematic climate model rainfall biases over Southern Africa: Links to moisture circulation and topography

Callum Munday and Richard Washington

An important challenge for climate science is to understand the regional circulation and rainfall response to global warming. Unfortunately, the climate models used to project future changes struggle to represent present-day rainfall and circulation, especially at a regional scale. This…

Policy brief: Policy coherence for sustainable development in sub-Saharan Africa

Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and London School of Economics and Political Science

Cross-sectoral approaches to policy development are essential to meeting the Paris Agreement on climate change and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which define the post-2015 development agenda. Coherent policy development requires strategic, logical assessment of interlinkages, trade-offs and opportunities within…

Characterising the synoptic expression of the Angola low

Emma Howard and Richard Washington

The Angola low is a key feature of the southern Africa wet season atmosphere that influences precipitation across the continent. This paper uses ERA-Interim to show that the synoptic expression of the Angola low is a combination of dry heat…

Dust induced changes on the West African summer monsoon features

E. T. N’Datchoh, I. Diallo, A. Konaré, S. Silué, K. O. Ogunjobi, A. Diedhioua and M. Doumbia

Dust generation and transportation from North Africa are thought to modulate the West African Monsoon (WAM) features. In this study, we investigated the relationship between the Saharan Air Layer located above Atlantic Ocean (OSAL) and WAM features, including Monsoon flow,…

Embracing uncertainty without abandoning planning

Ward Rauws

The uncertainties that are part of the development trajectories of cities challenge spatial planners in designing productive interventions. This paper explores how complexity theory can support planners in dealing with these uncertainties intelligently. It presents a dynamic, time-sensitive understanding of…

Process based model evaluation and projections over southern Africa from CORDEX and CMIP5 models

Izidine Pinto, Chris Jack and Bruce Hewitson

Decision‐scale relevant climate information on climate change is needed to inform policy and decision making but often involves high uncertainty. To enhance confidence in interpreting regional climate projections, it is important to understand the underlying physical processes driving the change.…

Detection and attribution of human influence on regional precipitation

Beena Balan Sarojini, Peter A. Stott and Emily Black

Understanding how human influence on the climate is affecting precipitation around the world is immensely important for defining mitigation policies, and for adaptation planning. Yet despite increasing evidence for the influence of climate change on global patterns of precipitation, and…

Causes of the uncertainty in projections of tropical terrestrial rainfall change: East Africa

David P. Rowell and Robin Chadwick

Understanding why different climate models produce different projections of future regional climate change is critical for the evaluation of the reliability of their projections. This study investigates the causes of projection spread across CMIP5 models for seasonal mean rainfall change…

Changes in climate extremes over West and Central Africa at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming.

Arona Diedhiou, Adeline Bichet, Richard Wartenburger, Sonia I Seneviratne, David P Rowell, Mouhamadou B Sylla, Ismaila Diallo, Stella Todzo, N’datchoh E Tour´, Moctar Camara, Benjamin Ngounou Ngatchah, Ndjido AKane, Laure Tall and Francois Affholder

In this study, we investigate changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over West and Central Africa (hereafter, WAF domain) as a function of global mean temperature with a focus on the implications of global warming of 1.5 ◦C and 2◦C…