PUBLICATIONS

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Madagascar influence on the South Indian Ocean Convergence Zone, the Mozambique Channel Trough and southern African rainfall

Rondrotiana Barimalala, Fabien Desbiolles, Ross C. Blamey, and Chris Reason

We show that the topography of Madagascar is essential to adequately simulate the atmospheric circulation and rainfall over southern Africa and the neighboring southwest Indian Ocean. By conducting a set of numerical experiments, we evaluate the role of Madagascar and…

From Amazonia to southern Africa: Atmospheric moisture transport through Low Level Jets and Atmospheric Rivers

Alexandre M. Ramos, Ross C. Blamey, Iago Algarra, Raquel Nieto, Luis Gimeno, Ricardo Tomé, Chris J.C. Reason, and Ricardo M. Trigo

A Lagrangian analysis is applied to identify the main moisture source areas associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs) making landfall along the west coast of South Africa during the extended austral winter months from 1980 to 2014. The results show that…

The role of regional circulation features in regulating El Nino climate impacts over Southern Africa: a comparison of the 2015/16 drought with previous events

R. C. Blamey; S. R. Kolusu; P. Mahlalela; M. C. Todd; C. J. C. Reason

Extremely dry conditions were experienced across most of southern Africa during the austral summer (October–March) of 2015/2016, associated with one of the strongest observed El Niño events in the Pacific. Dry conditions peaked in the early austral summer months (October–December)…

What can climate services learn from theory and practice of co-production?

Katharine Vincent,Meaghan Daly, Claire Scannell, Bill Leathes

Co-produced climate services are increasingly recognised as a means of improving the effective generation and utilisation of climate information to inform decision-making and support adaptation to climate change, particularly in developing countries. There is a rich literature outlining the theoretical…

Stronger Local Overturning in Convective‐Permitting Regional Climate Model Improves Simulation of the Subtropical Annual Cycle

Neil C. G. Hart, Richard Washington, and Rachel A. Stratton

Global climate models fail to represent the annual cycle of tropical‐extratropical cloud bands and produce too much summer rainfall over subtropical southern Africa. This study demonstrates that running a regional convective‐permitting climate simulation alleviates these biases, counteracting biases that are…

Going local; evaluation of an improved global high-resolution hydrological model to simulate runoff in a medium-sized East African basin

Study region: The Rufiji basin, East Africa. Study focus: Rapid advances in global hydrological model (GHM) resolution, model features, and in situ and remotely sensed datasets are driving progress towards local relevance and application. Despite their increasing use, however, evaluation…

How do staff motivation and workplace environment affect capacity of governments to adapt to climate change in developing countries?

Joanna Pardoe, Katharine Vincent, Declan Conway

Government ministries are increasingly mainstreaming climate change adaptation within policies and plans. However, government staff in key implementing ministries need to be empowered to ensure effective delivery of policy goals. Motivation to act on climate change, combined with the capacity…

A process-based assessment of CMIP5 rainfall in the Congo basin: The September–November rainy season

Amy Creese and Richard Washington

Congo basin September–November rainfall varies by up to a factor of 3 across CMIP5 coupled models. The severe lack of observational data in this region makes model evaluation difficult using standard techniques. This study uses a process-based assessment to evaluate…

Systematic climate model rainfall biases over Southern Africa: Links to moisture circulation and topography

Callum Munday and Richard Washington

An important challenge for climate science is to understand the regional circulation and rainfall response to global warming. Unfortunately, the climate models used to project future changes struggle to represent present-day rainfall and circulation, especially at a regional scale. This…

Policy brief: Policy coherence for sustainable development in sub-Saharan Africa

Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and London School of Economics and Political Science

Cross-sectoral approaches to policy development are essential to meeting the Paris Agreement on climate change and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which define the post-2015 development agenda. Coherent policy development requires strategic, logical assessment of interlinkages, trade-offs and opportunities within…